Republican Presidential Candidates - III

Might as well do this before tonight's candidate's debate, so here goes:

Tier 1 - Trump
rationale:  the feisty front-runner for now who isn't going away anytime soon

Tier 2 - Rubio
rationale:  hasn't looked hopeless, at least not yet

Tier 3 - Cruz, Jeb!, Christie, Kasich
rationale:  the only other candidates with even a slim chance of winning the GOP nomination

Tier 4 - the grifters, who I won't even bother to name
rationale:  in it for the money

Dark Horse - Paul Ryan
rationale:  may be the only possible GOP candidate who has a chance of winning in the general election

Last Day on Earth

by Lawrence Raab

If it’s the title of a movie you expect
everything to become important—a kiss,
a shrug, a glass of wine, a walk with the dog.

But if the day is real, life is only
as significant as yesterday—the kiss
hurried, the shrug forgotten, and now,

on the path by the river, you don’t notice
the sky darkening beyond the pines because
you’re imagining what you’ll say at dinner,

swirling the wine in your glass.
You don’t notice the birds growing silent
or the cold towers of clouds moving in,

because you’re explaining how lovely
and cool it was in the woods. And the dog
had stopped limping!—she seemed

her old self again, sniffing the air and alert,
the way dogs are to whatever we can’t see.
And I was happy, you hear yourself saying,

because it felt as if I’d been allowed
to choose my last day on earth,
and this was the one I chose.

The Future

by Billy Collins

When I finally arrive there—
And it will take many days and nights—
I would like to believe others will be waiting
and might even want to know how it was.

So I will reminisce about a particular sky
or a woman in a white bathrobe
or the time I visited a narrow strait
where a famous naval battle had taken place.

Then I will spread out on a table
a large map of my world
and explain to the people of the future
in their pale garments what it was like—

how mountains rose between the valleys
and this was called geography,
how boats loaded with cargo plied the rivers
and this was known as commerce,

how the people from this pink area
crossed over into this light-green area
and set fires and killed whoever they found
and this was called history—

and they will listen, mild-eyed and silent,
as more of them arrive to join the circle,
like ripples moving toward,
not away from, a stone tossed into a pond.

Republican Presidential Candidates - II

Since my initial post on this subject, two have dropped out (Perry, Walker) and a couple are lookin' pretty shaky (Paul, Graham), but the reality show goes on.  Let's get on with it then:

Tier 1:  Donald Trump, Carly Fiorina

For now, they're on top because they get attention, and how.  Trump is going to keep running and running and running given his ego and Fiorina is the only other candidate who can stand up to Trump's braggadocio.  You have to give Fiorina points for the sheer chutzpah of making a lying video after lying about a video in the last debate.  Not that the lies cancel each other out, of course.  I'm afraid it does say some pretty unflattering things about the GOP's base that no one dares call her out for being a liar.  I remember Barry Goldwater's quip about extremism in defense of liberty being no vice, but I do think he'd have drawn the line at baldfaced lying.

Tier 2:  Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz, John Kasich

Jeb falls back after his inept debate performance and lackluster campaign in general, while Rubio moves up as a consequence of Jeb's weak showing so far, as Rubio sort of fills the same political niche as Jeb does - a kinder, gentler face of the Republican Party.  Cruz is certainly not that face, but he is now definitely the Tea Party's darling after Scott Walker's implosion.  Kasich isn't really at the level the others in this tier are at, but as he's still got some real advantages as a candidate geographically coming from a key swing state, so I rate him a bit higher given his potential, even though he's not polling well.  It's still a long way to Iowa though, and we'll see.

Tier 3:  The rest. 

Seriously, if anyone thinks Ben Carson has a chance, please, bet me a dollar and I'll pay you a thousand if I'm wrong.  Sure, he'll stick around while he can I'm sure, possibly longer than most of the other also-rans.  Mike Huckabee is a capable enough politician but has little actual support so he's just grifting, while Rand Paul may have some libertarian Republican followers he's still not exciting them enough to really matter, and I think Paul will drop out in the next month and just be happy to be in the U.S. Senate.  As for the kid's table candidates, I'm wondering why they're even bothering having a warm-up debate myself.

Democratic Presidential Candidates - I

As it's the eve of the second Republican Presidential debate tonight, I figure I ought to say something about the Democratic Presidential Candidates too.  Here goes:

First tier:  Clinton, Sanders

Rationale:  The only two currently in the race who are drawing serious polling numbers.  'Nuff said.

Second tier:  Biden

Rationale:  I don't think Biden will run but he is polling better than the rest in response to current doubts about Clinton, IMO.  Essentially, Biden's supporters are likely Clinton backers who are nervous.  I think the upcoming Democratic debates will be beneficial for Hillary Clinton in terms of getting her beyond the faux email B.S. that's been the preoccupation of the press.

Third tier:  O'Malley

Rationale:  The only other candidate who could possibly, if not bloody well likely, be the nominee.

Fourth tier:  Chaffe, Webb, Lessig

Rationale:  Running because they have nothing better to do and heck, look at all the Repubilcans running!

Basically, it's Clinton's race to lose and she won't.  She barely lost out to Obama back in 2008 and Sanders is not Obama - Sanders is from the far left of the political spectrum who is running to the left in hopes of shifting the Democrats leftward, and he's already succeeded in doing that while firing up the white liberal base.  But the cold fact is that Democrats won't win unless they get a big minority turnout, and when the dust has settled on the caucuses and primaries I expect Obama to do everything he can to get out the vote for Clinton, and Obama has considerable popularity where it counts.

The real danger for Democrats is that Sanders may well fire up his base so much that he alienates them from Clinton in the general election and that's when Ralph Nader decides to run again.  Do.  Not.  Want.   I'm sure President Trump's first act as President will be to gild the White House in gold leaf, and lots of it.  Americans deserve a classy President and a classy White House, don't they?

Republican Presidential Candidates - I

Some years ago I did rankings of Presidential candidates on my old LiveJournal (now deceased), and given this cycle's bountiful bounty it would be a shame not to do it again.  Since the Republicans have already conveniently provided an initial ranking of those who get to sit at the adult debate table and those who have to sit at the kids table, let's start emptying out the clown car:

Tier 1:  Donald Trump, Jeb Bush, Scott Walker

Rationale: Trump may not have a chance at the nomination, but for now he's in the running as the candidate who is truly giving the people what they want: spectacle.  Jeb Bush is the old money candidate of the GOP, with an obvious pedigree, while Scott Walker is the darling of the Tea Party.  Of the three, Jeb is the only one who really could get the nomination and win in the general election, as Trump simply isn't credible and Walker is too cozy with the crazy for the comfort of most voters.

Tier 2:  Chris Christie, Carly Fiorina, John Kasich, Marco Rubio

Rationale:  The "moderate" longshots who are hoping to last long enough to either be there if Jeb falters.  Christie is obnoxious, which helps his moderation go over better with Tea Party types, but I don't think Christie has enough appeal with the crayzee GOP base to last long in 2016.  Fiorina is fashionably conservative and a business executive like Trump and has done better in the debates than expected, which is why she's at the adult's table now.  Kasich is Jeb without all the Bush baggage and in my opinion could win in the general election, but it's hard to see how he gets there given the crowded field and the fact that he's not a Tea Party type.  Rubio, while he looks fine on paper and is from a state the GOP absolutely needs to win in 2016, hasn't caught on despite having some success at fund-rasing.  Well, there's still time for Rubio's fortunes to rise I suppose, and he's definitely VP material since he's both from a key electoral state and Hispanic too.

Tier 3:  Ben Carson, Ted Cruz, Mike Huckabee, Rand Paul

Rationale:  Carson is inexplicably popular but is still just a flash-in-the-pan, so I hope he enjoys the ride while it lasts.  Ted Cruz is explicably popular given his over-the-top performance doing things like going to Kentucky to support gay-marriage hatin' county clerks, along with Huckabee of course, but they're also just part of the sideshow and have absolutely no chance to win.  Rand Paul seems to be the Fred Thompson of 2016 and fallen far short of initial expectations, but he's still got his father's legacy and lingers on for now.

Tier 4: Rick Perry, Rich Santorum, Bobby Jindal, George Pataki, Lindsey Graham

Rationale:  The kid's table tier, full of either also-rans like Perry and Santorum, and never-will-be's like the rest.  But they still could have fun taking potshots at the adults as Jindal is now doing with Trump and have some impact on the race.

More after the next GOP debate...

2015 Minnesota State Fair

Erin and I went on opening day to the Minnesota State Fair this year, which is always on a Thursday.  The weather was pleasant and the crowds were bigger than I expected, with the official count at 110,000 for the day.  So sometimes there were long lines for things like food and rides, but it wasn't too bad.  I took my new Nikon Coolpix S7000 camera along and this year remembered to make sure my camera was fully charged, so I took a lot of pictures and a few movies too.  I'll just start at the beginning and go on to the end of our day photo to photo and let the narrative take care of itself.

We started our day at the Park 'n Ride at Calvary Baptist Church in Roseville, and this is what the line for the shuttle buses to the fair looked like about ten minutes after we got in it.  Glad I made it there just in time, and we only had about a 20 minute wait for the next bus.

We did first stop in the Merchandise Mart near the front entrance, where Erin found and bought a nice little cart with a removable (and washable) bag that was perfect for her to put the backpack in and walk around with. Very lightweight and small enough to handle in a crowd easily.  We were glad we got it later.

Our next stop after coming in the main gate was the Creative Arts Building, where this 17' ketch was on display at the front entrance.  A beautiful boat!

Some prize-winning entries for knitting and quilt-making on display.  There were a lot of those!

Some fun beadwork that can't help but catch the eye.

We then went into where there were vendors selling various craft-related products and came across one where you could make your own dyed silk scarf.  It looked like fun and I encouraged Erin to try it, so she did.  Here she is getting started, as she drops pigment on the surface of a water and starch mix.

 Still adding more paint and creating a pattern.

Then it's time to make swirls in the pigment, which I took a video of to get a better idea of what's going on.

Then the silk scarf was lowered into the water to absorb the paint.

Then after about 15 seconds, it was time to take it out!  Then it was bagged wet to later take it home to dry and then set with an iron on a low-heat setting.  Erin was glad I encouraged her to do it.

Next door to the Creative Arts building is the Education building, which we only stopped in to look at the public school art on exhibit there.  This 'cave art' piece from a Kindergartner made us smile.

Then we went to the Fine Arts building to view the art exhibit there.  We both liked the "Old School Selfie" a lot.

If a tree falls in love in a forest...

By then we were hungry, so we went over to the Hamline Church Dining Hall to have lunch.  I had a cheeseburger while Erin had the chicken dinner, with real mashed potatoes even, and all the coffee you want to drink.   It's the oldest concessionaire at the state fair at 118 years and counting.

Then, it was time to go to the Agricultural Building to see the crop art.  There was a bountiful harvest of seeds to be seen this year to be sure.  We also enjoyed learning about apple trees from the University of Minnesota Extension Service (we need to plant a new one this year) and Erin bought a couple of gardening book from another vendor there as well.  But here's the crop art:

Erin liked this one and thought her Mom would like it too, so I took a picture of it.

Celebrating a St. Paul landmark in seeds, which is certainly appropriate given the subject.

Strange and interesting, this one.

Yes Virginia, there are politics at the State Fair too.  Thankfully, it's more low key.

A nice composition, this one!

And more 'cave art' too.  Be sure to zoom in and read the story of it too, it's cute.

Saving our favorite for last, we laughed a lot when seeing this!  Of course, we are dog people, ya know.

Over in an adjacent hall from the crop art display were some scarecrows too, and here are a couple of them:

A scarecrow scarecrow.  Nicely done!

And here's 'Scary Garcia'.  LOL!

We then went over to the International Bazaar area and strolled by the vendor booths there while I had a beer and some spring rolls, but neither of us found anything there to acquire this year.  Then we started making our way down Judson past Nelson and stopped for a while at the Minnesota Public Radio booth there.

Here's Charlie Parr doing a soundcheck before his live segment on the Current at 4pm.  We both enjoyed it.

After that we decided to make our way over to the new (as of last year) West End of the fair, and on our way we did stop at a few places of interest.

At the alpaca booth, where the signs said "DON'T PET THE ANIMALS".  Like that had any effect.  They did have hand sanitizing liquid available though.

The new West End was very nice, now much more open than before, if a bit more confusing to move around in.  But the new stage was very nice for both performers and audience.

I stopped to hear an old-time country band play for a while and to drink a beer too, of course.

Then Erin and I stopped at the new glass studio booth, which now features a glass-blowing demo area too.

A great setup for glass-blowing and the guy doing the announcing was quite good and funny also.

Putting a decanter in the 'glory-hole' to soften it so it can be worked into the proper shape.

A close-up of the 'glory-hole'.  Given how far away I was from it, I'm impressed with the zoom on my new camera!

We then wandered the West End some more, and Erin got an antler from a taxidermist for Tucker to chew on, we looked at some t-shirts but didn't buy any, and then decided it was time to head for the Pet Barn on the far north end of the fairgrounds (at 320 acres, it's a BIG fair) instead of stopping at the Grandstand, as there was a show at the Pet Barn we wanted to see at 5:45pm.

We were going to take the sky chairs over, but the line there was very long and the chairs weren't moving much, so we decided to walk there instead.  I did get some pop at the R.C. stand on the way to quench my thirst and it didn't take us all that long to get there, so we had time before the 5:45 show to share a big tenderloin sandwich between us.  Then we stopped by a few vendors in the Pet Barn and got a scarf for Missy, a t-shirt for Erin from the Minnesota Humane Society and a few puppy treats to take home too.  Then it was time for the show, featuring Smith the German Shepherd.

Smith and his handler, who was very good at telling how she trained Smith as well as answering many questions from the crowd.

Demonstrating how you can get your dog to allow you to trim their nails.  As we well know ourselves, this is a very useful thing to train your dog to do.

Smith being very calm and collected while working the crowd.  The handler trusted him so much he just walked around on his own too while collecting pets from people.  A very good show, and highly recommended.  It starts at 5:45pm every day of the fair, before the St. Paul Police K-9 demonstration at 7pm, at the Pet Center.

We then walked back south, stopping to look at some cabins and sheds, then we went through the Eco Center, and then wandered over to the Home Improvement shed where Erin and I were both pleased to fine some interesting products and took home a few brochures of.

Then we shared an order of Veggie Fries and sat down in the Farmers Union to enjoy a iced frappe together while listening to a nice duo on the stage there perform.  (There's a lot of small stages spread throughout the state fair, in addition to the larger ones and the Grandstand.)  By then it was getting dark and it was time to go home, but not before catching this:

They don't call it "Minnesota's Great Get-Together" for nothing, you know.

Then we headed back on the shuttle bus to the car and drove home to some soon-to-be relieved puppies.  And fell over ourselves.